SPOT FOREX
AUD
- AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
Chart Comment
On October 6,
2009, Australia became the first G-20 member to raise its interest rate and the
economy is still doing well. On May 4th, the Australian dollar broke lower, affected
by Europe's debt problems. Prices are surprisingly weak with additional
concerns that China may be slowing? Be careful, the sell-off may be over-done
Key
Events -Australia
2010
6-10 - May unemployment rate improved
from 5.4% to 5.2% with a net gain of 26,900 jobs.
6-2 - Real GDP +.5% in Q1 and +2.7% from a year ago.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP +3.2% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011.
5-13 - April unemployment rate stayed at 5.4% in April with a gain of 33,700
jobs, more than expected.
5-4 - RBA raised interest rate from 4.25% to 4.50%.
4-8 - March unemployment rate stayed at 5.3% with a net gain of 19,600 jobs.
3-29 - RBA Governor Stevens warned that property markets are over-heating.
3-11 - February unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.3% with a net gain
of 400 jobs.
3-3 - Real GDP +.9% in Q4 and +2.7% from a year ago, better than expected and
the best quarterly growth in over two years.
3-2 - RBA raised interest rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.
2-11 - January unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3%, the lowest in
eleven months.
1-27 - IMF est.: Real GDP +2.5% in 2010 and +3.0% in 2011.
1-14 - December unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5% with a net gain of
35,200 jobs, much stronger than expected.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing fell from 51.2 to 48.5 in December, a sign of
contraction.
2009
12-16 - Real GDP +.2% in Q3 and +.5%
from a year ago, less than expected.
12-10 - November unemployment rate improved from 5.8% to 5.7% with a net gain
of 31,200 jobs, better than expected.
12-1 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.50% to 3.75%, the third
consecutive month.
11-12 - October unemployment rate increased from 5.7% to 5.8% in spite of a net
gain of 24,500 jobs, more than expected.
11-6 - RBA est.: Real GDP +1.75% in 2009 and +3.25% in 2010.
11-5 - Exports up 5% in September.
11-3 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.25% to 3.50%.
10-8 - September unemployment rate improves to 5.7% from 5.8% with a gain of
40,600 jobs, more than expected.
10-6 - Reserve Bank raised the interest rate from 3.00% to 3.25%, the first
G-20 member to do so.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP +.7% in 2009 and +2.0% in 2010.
9-30 - Retail sales up .9% in August, much stronger than expected.
9-10 - August unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8% in July, but 27,100 jobs
were lost, weaker than expected.
9-2 - Q2 real GDP +.6% v. year ago, much stronger than expected.
Fundamental Notes
Australia is currently the strongest
performing economy of the currencies that we cover and the only one that
avoided a recession in 2009. Real GDP was up 2.7% in the first quarter from a
year ago. On October 9, 2008, the World Economic Forum said that Australia's
banking system was the fourth soundest in the world.
Australia's government spends 34% of
the nation's income, which is surprisingly low when you consider that they also
provide universal healthcare. Overall tax revenues only amount to 31% of the
nation's income.
Australia Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +2.7% in the
first quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 5.2% in May.
Consumer price index: +2.9% in Q1 v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Raised from 4.25% to 4.50% on May 4, 2010.
GDP: US$824 billion (2009 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 19% (2009 CIA estimate).
Population: 21.3 million (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 3rd.
GBP -
BRITISH POUND
Chart Comment
So far in 2010,
the British pound has been falling in sympathy with the euro. The trend is
still down, but the pound may have found some support at $1.425?
Key
Events - U.K.
2010
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP +1.3% in
2010 and 2.5% in 2011.
5-25 - Q1 GDP +.3% and -.2% from a year ago.
5-12 - Jan-Mar unemployment rate at 8.0%, unchanged from a month ago. 2.51
million out of work, the most since 1994.
4-23 - Q1 GDP +.2% and -.3% from a year ago.
4-21 - IMF est.: Real GDP +1.3% in 2010 and +2.5% in 2011.
4-21 - Dec-Feb unemployment rate at 8.0%, up from 7.8% a month ago.
3-30 - Q4 GDP +.4% and -3.1% from a year ago.
3-24 - Finance Minister Darling: Real GDP est. +3.25% in 2011.
3-17 - Nov-Jan unemployment rate at 7.8%, down from revised 7.9% a month ago.
2-26 - Q4 GDP +.3% and -3.3% from a year ago.
2-17 - Oct-Dec unemployment rate stayed at 7.8%. Jobless claims hit 1.64
million, the most since April of 1997.
1-26 - Q4 GDP +.1% and -3.3% from a year ago.
1-20 - Sep-Nov unemployment rate at 7.8%, better than expected.
1-19 - Consumer prices +2.9% in December from a year ago, more than expected.
1-13 - Manufacturing output unchanged in November and down 5.4% from a year
ago.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing increased from 51.8 to 54.1 in December, the
highest in over two years.
2009
12-22 - Q3 GDP -.2% and -5.1% from a
year ago.
12-16 - Aug-Oct unemployment rate at 7.9%.
12-8 - Manufacturing output unchanged in October.
11-25 - Q3 GDP -.3% and -5.1% from a year ago.
11-11 - July-Sep unemployment rate at 7.8%, better than expected.
11-5 - Manufacturing output up 1.7% in September, better than expected.
11-3 - European Union est.: Real GDP +.9% in 2010 and +1.9% in 2011.
10-23 - Q3 GDP -.4% and -5.2% from a year ago, weaker than expected and the
longest recession since 1955.
10-14 - June-Aug unemployment rate stayed at 7.9%, better than expected.
10-6 - Manufacturing output -1.9% in August, weaker than expected.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -4.4% in 2009 and +.9% in 2010.
9-16 - May-July unemployment rate at 7.9% (14 yr high).
9-8 - Manufacturing output up .9% in July, much stronger than expected.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -4.7% in 2009.
9-1 - Manufacturing index falls from 50.2 to 49.7 in August, weaker than
expected.
Fundamental
Notes
Real GDP was down .2% in the first
quarter from a year ago. For all of 2009, GDP was down 4.9%, the largest fall
on record, after posting a gain of .5% in 2008. The government spends 44% of
the GDP which is high, but of course, they also offer more public services like
universal healthcare. Altogether, tax revenues amount to 38% of the nation's
income.
U.K. Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: -.2% in the first
quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 8.0% in Dec-Feb.
Consumer price index: +3.7% in April v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from 1.00% to .50% on March 5, 2009.
GDP: US$2.15 trillion (2009 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 69% (2009 CIA estimate).
Population: 61.1 million (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 11th.
EUR
- EURO
Chart Comment
The price of the
euro currency has been falling since December while Europe's debt problems
continue to worsen. It has been four years since prices were this low, but so
far, prices remain in a down-trend
Key
Events – EU-27
2010
6-9 - OPEC: Increased estimate of 2010
GDP growth in the Euro-zone from .6% to .7%.
6-4 - Q! GDP +.2% and +.5% from a year ago.
5-27 - China voiced its support for Europe. No plans to reduce holdings of
European bonds or the euro.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP in the Euro area +1.2% in 2010 and +1.8% in 2011.
5-12 - Q1 GDP +.2% and +.3% from a year ago, better than expected.
5-6 - Greece's Parliament approves budget that allows aid from Europe and the
IMF.
4-27 - Standard and Poor's lowered Greece's credit rating from BBB+ to BB+ with
a negative outlook.
4-21 - IMF est.: Real GDP for the Euro area +1.0% in 2010 and +1.5% in 2011.
4-7 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago.
3-31 - February unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, the highest
since August of 1998.
3-4 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago.
3-1 - January (EU27) unemployment rate stayed at 9.5%.
2-25 - European Commission est.: Real GDP +.7% in 2010 in the EU.
2-16 - European Union predicts roughly 1.0% growth in 2010 for the Euro zone.
2-12 - Q4 GDP +.1% and down 2.3% from a year ago, weaker than expected.
2-11 - European Union strikes deal to provide aid to Greece.
1-29 - December (EU27) unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6% in
December, the highest since records began in January of 2000.
1-14 - Industrial production +.9% in November, but down 6.4% from a year ago.
1-8 - November (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.8% to 10.0%, the highest
since the euro began in 1999.
1-8 - Q3 GDP +.3% and -4.3% from a year ago.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing for the Euro area increased from 51.2 to 51.6
in December, the highest in 21 months.
2009
12-17 - Standard and Poor's cut
Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+.
12-16 - Markit's composite index of mfg and services in the Euro zone increased
from 53.7 to 54.2 in December, the highest in over two years.
12-3 - Q3 GDP +.3% and -4.3% from a year ago.
12-3 - Markit's composite index of mfg and services in the Euro zone increased
from 53.0 to 53.7 in November, the highest in two years.
12-1 - October (EA) unemployment rate unchanged at 9.8%.
11-23 - Markit Econ.: Composite index of mfg. and services increased from 53.0
to 53.7 in November, the highest in two years.
11-19 - OECD GDP est. for Euro area: +.9% in 2010 and +1.7% in 2011.
11-13 - Q3 GDP +.2% and -4.3% v. year ago.
11-3 - European Union est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) +.7% in 2010 and +1.5% in
2011.
10-30 - September (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.6% to 9.8%.
10-7 - Q2 GDP -4.9% v. year ago.
10-1 - August (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.5% to 9.6%.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) -4.2% in 2009 and +.3% in 2010.
9-4 - ECB est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) will be down 4.1% in 2009 and up .2%
in 2010.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP (for Euro area) -3.9% in 2009.
9-2 - Q2 GDP -4.8% v. year ago.
9-1 - July (EA) unemployment rate increased from 9.4% to 9.5%.
9-1 - Manufacturing index improved from 46.3 to 48.2, still contracting.
Fundamental Notes
Real GDP was up .3% in the first
quarter from a year ago, but serious problems have been exposed by Greece's
debt crisis. Do not be surprised if Europe's governments go back to issuing
their own currencies. The experiment of one currency without one government has
failed. For all of 2009, real GDP was down 4.2%. On February 25, 2010, the
European Commission estimated 2010 growth at .7% for the European Union.
The governments of Germany, France, and
Italy spend 44%, 52%, and 48% of their nation's incomes, respectively. That is
high compared to most democracies due to the level of support programs that
they offer. Tax revenues in the same three countries total 41%, 45%, and 43% of
GDP and public debt amounts to 77%, 80%, and 115% of GDP.
European Union (27) Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +.5% in the
first quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 9.7% in April.
Consumer price index: +1.6%(est.) in May v. year ago (EA).
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from 1.25% to 1.00% on May 7, 2009.
Population: 492 million (2009 ECB estimate).
GDP: US$14.5 trillion (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Rankings: Ireland is 5th; Denmark is
9th; Germany is 23rd; France is 64th; Italy is 74th.
Notable Quote:
BNP Paribas's estimate of Purchasing Power Parity in euro/dollar currently
stands at $1.1370.
Reuters.com, May 26, 2010.
JPY
-JAPANESE YEN
Chart Comment
Japan is a long
way from being able to raise its interest rate, but on May 6th, the yen got hit
with massive short-covering that pushed the price sharply higher. Its hard to
believe in a higher yen, but you also do not want to underestimate the bad news
in Europe
Key Events - Japan
2010
6-10 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q1 and +4.2%
from a year ago.
6-9 - OPEC raised its estimate of Japan's 2010 GDP growth from 1.5% to 2.7%.
6-2 - Prime Minister Hatoyama resigned.
5-28 - April unemployment rate increased from 5.0% to 5.1%.
5-26 - OECD est.: Real GDP +3.0% in 2010 and +2.0% in 2011.
5-20 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q1 and +4.2% from a year ago.
4-30 - March unemployment rate increased from 4.9% to 5.0%.
4-21 - IMF est.: Real GDP +1.9% in 2010 and +2.0% in 2011.
3-30 - February unemployment rate stayed at 4.9%.
3-29 - Retail sales +4.2% in February from a year ago, stronger than expected
and the biggest monthly gain since 1997.
3-11 - Real GDP +.9% in Q4 and -1.4% from a year ago.
3-2 - Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 4.9% in January, the
lowest in ten months and much better than expected. The economy added 540,000
jobs, the biggest monthly gain since 1973.
2-26 - Factory output up 2.5% in January, better than expected.
2-15 - Real GDP +1.1% in Q4 and -.9% from a year ago, better than expected. For
calendar year 2009, real GDP was down 5.0%.
1-29 - December unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 5.1% with 130,000 new
jobs, the most in four months.
1-26 - Bank of Japan est.: Real GDP -2.5% in 2009-2010 and up 1.3% in
2010-2011.
1-26 - December exports up 12% from a year ago, the first annual gain in 15
months.
2009
12-26 - November unemployment rate
increased from 5.1% to 5.2%.
12-21 - November exports +5% and down 6% from a year ago, the smallest annual
decline in 14 months.
12-9 - Real GDP +.3% in Q3 and down 5.1% from a year ago, much weaker than last
month's estimate.
11-27 - October unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.1%, much better than
expected for the third consecutive month.
11-25 - October exports -23.2% from a year ago, smallest annual decline in a
year.
11-19 - OECD GDP est.: +1.8% in 2010 and +2.0% in 2011.
11-16 - Real GDP +1.2% in Q3 and down 4.5% from a year ago, stronger than
expected.
10-30 - September unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3%, the best in
four months.
10-29 - Industrial output +1.4% in September, the seventh consecutive month
higher.
10-2 - August unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5%, much better than
expected.
10-1 - IMF est.: Real GDP -5.4% in 2009 and +1.7% in 2010.
9-24 - Exports down 36% in August from a year ago, the 11th consecutive
decline.
9-11 - Real GDP +.6% in Q2 and -7.2% from a year ago.
9-3 - OECD est.: Real GDP -5.6% in 2009.
Fundamental Notes
Japan's economy is slowly improving.
Real GDP in Japan was up 4.2% in the first quarter of 2010 from a year ago
after declining 5.2% in calendar year 2009 and 1.2% in 2008.
Japan's government spends 36% of the
nation's income, fairly low compared to other democracies and they provide
universal healthcare. Tax revenues amount to only 28% of GDP, but public debt
is a whopping 170% of GDP.
Japan Stats:
Latest real GDP growth: +4.2% in the
first quarter v. year ago.
Unemployment rate: 5.1% in April.
Consumer price index: -1.2% in April v. year ago.
Latest interest rate change: Reduced from .30% to .10% on December 19, 2008.
GDP: US$4.14 trillion (2009 CIA estimate).
Public debt/GDP: 192% (2009 CIA estimate).
Population: 127.1 million (2009 CIA estimate).
2010 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Ranking: 19th.